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Data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows modest retail sales gains in June despite an uneven pace of spending in recent months, says National Retail Federation chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.
“The path of household spending remains difficult to read,” Kleinhenz says. “Spending has been uneven but remains in good condition notwithstanding the slower pace of payrolls, subdued consumer confidence and price deflation for retail goods. Looking ahead, we expect consumer spending trends to continue even though they will likely be tempered by softening of employment and income growth. Still-high interest rates are making purchases on credit more expensive and have discouraged new borrowing.”
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in June were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 2.3% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year in May.
June’s core retail sales were up 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 1.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.2% year-over-year for the first six months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
