Holiday Sales Predictions On Track

Retail sales saw strong year-over-year growth in November, with the first half of the month posting results on track to meet the National Retail Federation’s spending forecast, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

“Retail sales showed healthy year-over-year gains in November while month-over-month data was largely flat,” says Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO. “Shoppers looking for online deals may have held back a bit until Cyber Monday, which landed in December due to a late Thanksgiving, likely shifting some spending. Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget. We remain confident in our 2025 holiday forecast as well as our retail sales projections for the full year.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.12% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.53% unadjusted year over year in November, according to the Retail Monitor. That compares with increases of 0.6% month over month and 5% year over year in October.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants, auto dealers and gas stations) was down a slight 0.04% month over month in November but up 4.66% year over year. That compares with increases of 0.6% month over month and 4.89% year over year in October.

Total sales were up 5.06% year over year for the first 11 months of the year and core sales were up 5.22%.

November sales were up in all but one category on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and clothing stores, but were down in six out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.04% month over month, seasonally adjusted but up 8.16% year over year, unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were down 0.73% month over month, seasonally adjusted but up 3.1% year over year, unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.94% month over month, seasonally adjusted but up 1.01% year over year, unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month, seasonally adjusted and up 0.53% year over year, unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 1.74% month over month, seasonally adjusted and down 9.38% year over year, unadjusted.