Contractor Outlook Remains Optimistic

The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q4 2025 shows contractors remain confident about near-term work, even as revenue expectations and growth soften compared to last year.

Overall confidence in securing new business over the coming six months scored 8.3 out of 10, a slight year over year increase. Fewer contractors also expect revenue growth in 2026, and fewer report revenue gains throughout 2025.

Fewer contractors expect revenue gains

65% of contractors expect revenue to increase over the next 12 months, down 4% year over year, and 55% say revenue increased in 2025, slightly lower than in 2024.

Mechanical contractors report the strongest outlook, while exterior and finishing trades show weaker expectations. Most contractors who expect growth anticipate modest gains, typically under 20%, with relatively few projecting large increases.

Labor Shortages Continue

Almost half of the surveyed contractors reported difficulty hiring skilled labor in 2025. Confidence in labor availability over the next 12 months improved slightly to 7.7 out of 10, but labor costs continue to weigh on outlooks, particularly for remodelers and landscaping contractors.

To see the full data, download the study here.