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Holiday Sales Growth

NRF Expects Holiday Sales Growth

A record 183.4 million people are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) Holiday survey. The figure is up from the previous record of 182 million in 2023 and 18.1 million more people than five years ago in 2019.

“Even though holiday shopping continues to pull forward, some of the busiest shopping days of the year are during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend,” says Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. “Consumers are prioritizing gift-giving for the most important people in their lives, and retailers are prepared to help customers find everything on their shopping lists at great prices throughout the season.”

57% of shoppers plan to shop during Thanksgiving weekend because of deals and discounts, 28% plan to shop because of tradition and 24% reported they like to start holiday shopping early.

While consumers will spread their shopping across channels throughout the five-day holiday weekend, Black Friday remains the most popular day to shop, with 72%, or 131.7 million people planning to go to stores or shop online. About two-thirds of Black Friday shoppers expect to specifically shop in stores that day. Cyber Monday is the second most popular day, attracting 39%, or 72.3 million of those planning to shop.

The trend of early holiday shopping continues with 58% of consumers having already started their holiday shopping as of early November.

“Younger shoppers are most likely to take advantage of Thanksgiving weekend deals this year, with 89% of young adults between 18-24 planning to shop over the weekend,” says Phil Rist, Prosper Insights & Analytics executive vice president of strategy. “The social aspect of holiday shopping is also enticing to this age group, and they are most likely to shop because it’s a group activity that can be enjoyed with friends and family.”

Half of the interviewed consumers not currently planning to shop during the holiday weekend could be convinced to do so if items they want are on sale or if friends or family invite them.

Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows retail sales grew the past two months. The growth represents households’ capacity to spend and the strength in the economy, says Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist.

“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” Kleinhenz says. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”

About Jacob Musselman

Jacob is the content coordinator for Hardware Retailing Magazine. A lifelong Hoosier, Jacob earned a B.S. in journalism and telecommunications with a minor in digital publishing from Ball State University. He loves making bagels, going to farmers markets with his wife Hannah and two dogs and watching Formula One.

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