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The summer of 2026 is packed with celebrations expected to give retailers a boost as consumers spend on travel, sporting events, community gatherings and holidays, according to a new economic outlook from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
In its latest Retail Economic Perspective, Mark Matthews, NRF chief economist and executive director of research, says the convergence of major events, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, America’s 250th anniversary celebrations, Fourth of July festivities and the traditional summer travel season, is creating more opportunities for consumer spending than a typical summer.
“Consumers continue to be thoughtful about their spending, but they have consistently demonstrated a willingness to invest in experiences and celebrations that matter to them,” Matthews says.
The NRF expects spending to be supported by these celebrations with an emphasis on food, beverages, apparel and other seasonal categories.
According to NRF research conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics, about 66.8 million U.S. adults are expected to watch World Cup matches on television or streaming platforms, while millions more will attend games in person. Consumers are projected to spend a combined $10.8 billion related to the tournament, with 27% planning to buy team apparel or accessories and 21% intending to purchase a new television.
The report also points to strong travel demand this summer, citing projections from AAA that a record 72.2 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home during the extended Fourth of July holiday period.
Although the outlook is positive, the NRF says elevated inflation, higher gas prices and increased spending on travel could pressure household budgets. Consumers have recently offset higher prices by saving less and continuing to spend, but that trend may become more difficult to sustain if wage growth continues to lag inflation.
