Paused Tariffs Offer Temporary Relief for Consumers

Days after sweeping tariffs were announced, President Donald Trump has paused tariffs for most nations for 90 days and increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%.

As a result of these tariffs, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett says imports during the second half of 2025 are expected to be down at least 20% year over year. Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, it could bring the 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 150% or more.

“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett says. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”

Consumer sentiment reflects growing apprehension about the financial impact of these tariffs. A recent survey from Numerator—a data and technology company that provides market research and consumer insights—found that 80% of U.S. shoppers are concerned about how tariffs will affect their personal finances and shopping behaviors.

Around 64% are worried about tariffs raising the price of everyday goods, with top concerns for groceries (55%), gasoline (41%) and household goods (34%). In response to the tariffs, around 76% of consumers anticipate changing their shopping habits, such as seeking sales or coupons to offset price increases, buying fewer imported goods or switching to U.S.-made alternatives.

“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” says Jonathan Gold, National Retail Federation (NRF) vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Tariffs are taxes on U.S importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other. At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”

The study done by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta (FRA) also finds that Canada and Mexico play a growing role in U.S. retail supply chains. Previous research from the FRA indicate that import cost adjustments can hit consumers around one month after they come into effect, leaving companies and retailer with little choice but to factor those costs when setting prices.

The study notes that while some businesses may initially absorb part of the burden, it still suggests many ultimately pass on most or all of the added expense to shoppers. However, a previous Numerator survey found that 44% of consumers believe businesses should absorb some of the costs to keep prices stable.