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The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts between 2.5% and 3.5% growth in holiday spending from 2023, equating to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December of 2024.
“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” says Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
The holiday forecast is consistent with NRF’s forecast that annual sales for 2024 will be between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” says Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.”
Online shopping is expected to be the largest growth factor going into the holiday season. The NRF expects retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year.
One differentiating characteristic from last year’s holiday shopping season is that the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be six days shorter, totaling 26 days. Additional factors include the economic impact of recent hurricanes and the 2024 presidential election.
