Import Cargo Volume Expected to Drop in Early 2026

Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see a significant year-over-year decline during the first half of 2026 as the impact of tariffs continues, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said tariffs have brought “a global change in trade relations” that is affecting import volumes.

“The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike, combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented, makes trade forecasting very difficult,” Hackett says. “Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.99 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU)—one 20-foot container or its equivalent—in December, although the ports of Houston and Charleston have not yet reported their data. That was down 1.7% from November and down 6.6% year over year. Imports for the full year in 2026 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for January, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.11 million TEU, which would be up from December ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia but down 5.2% year over year. February is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 3.1% year over year; March at 1.89 million TEU, down 12%; April at 2.05 million TEU, down 7.1%; May at 2.13 million TEU, up 9.3%, and June at 2.12 million TEU, up 8%.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.27 million TEU, down 2% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025.