Import Cargo Levels Expected to Remain High Due to Rising Tariffs

Imports at major ports in the U.S. are projected to remain high as cargo continues to come in at retailer demand ahead of growing tariffs on China and other countries, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker report.

Retailers have been frontloading imports on certain key products for many months ahead of the potential East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike in January and tariffs from President Donald Trump. Tariffs announced last week from Trump include 25% on most Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on goods from China.

“Supply chains are complex,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Retailers continue to engage in diversification efforts. Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity. While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at our borders, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families. Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs. We hope to resolve our outstanding border security issues as quickly as possible, because there will be a significant impact on the economy if increased tariffs are maintained and expanded.”

According to Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates Founder, tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal impact on ports due to most imports from either country moving by truck, rail or pipeline. An increase in direct maritime imports to the U.S. could occur due to the Canadian and Mexican tariffs in the long run.

“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed,” Hackett says. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”

In December, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, down 0.9% from November but up 14.4% year over year, making December 2024 the busiest December on record.