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As tariffs continue to put pressure on international trade, import cargo volume at shipping ports is tentatively expected to end 2025 5.6% below the volumes from 2024, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses, especially, are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”
The forecast comes as tariffs on dozens of countries around the world were announced, postponed and then enacted after months of negotiations and deals began to take effect.
“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” says Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates founder. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in June, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.7% from May but down 8.4% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for July, but Global Port Tracker projected that the month surged to 2.3 million TEU as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs, the highest number in a year, up 17.3% from June and down just 0.5% year over year.
August is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 5% year over year, and September at 1.83 million TEU, down 19.5% year over year. October is forecast at 1.82 million TEU, down 18.9% year over year and November at 1.71 million TEU, down 21.1% for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. Volume forecast for the remainder of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
