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Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain below last year’s level for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, although it is too soon to measure the anticipated impact of the conflict in Iran, according to the Global Port Tracker released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses. While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”
President Trump immediately responded to the Supreme Court’s decision to rule against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act with a temporary, 150-day 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The administration later said the rate could be increased to 15% and is also looking at launching a series of new Section 301 trade investigations.
It is too soon to see an impact on U.S. container imports from the current action in Iran, according to Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates founder.
“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region,” Hackett says. “While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million TEUs (20-foot containers or equivalent) in January, up from 3.8% in December but down year over year. Ports have not reported numbers for February, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. March is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2%; April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7%; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.8%; and July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%.
With those numbers, imports in the first half of 2026 would be 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. Imports during 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
