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Retail sales in November and December are expected to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% from last year, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) recently released annual holiday forecast. This translates to total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” says NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
To meet consumer demand, retailers are hiring additional support this holiday season. NRF predicts retailers to hire 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers, down from 442,000 hired in 2024.
Due to ongoing tariff uncertainty, retailers will be closely monitoring holiday spending patterns and waiting to hire additional staff based on demand.
“The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation,” says NRF chief economist and executive director of research Mark Matthews. “As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
The federal government shutdown will also affect consumer demand with a loss of private-sector income. NRF also found consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, the highest amount in 23 years.
