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Monthly import cargo volumes are expected to fall below the 2 million TEU mark for the remainder of the year, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
The latest tariffs, 25% on upholstered furniture regardless of country and the same rate on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, are set to take effect on Oct. 14 and increase in January.
“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” says Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates founder. “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million TEUs in August, down 2.9% from July’s 2.39 million TEU but up 0.1% year over year.
October is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 12.3% year over year, and November at 1.75 million TEU, down 19.2%. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.4% year over year for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
The lower monthly totals are related to tariffs, but the year-over-year percentage declines are due to early peak season and elevated imports in late 2024 over port strikes.
