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Year-over-year declines in import cargo volume seen at the nation’s major container ports in recent months are expected to continue in 2026, according to the Global Port Tracker report recently released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”
The U.S. administration has reduced tariffs on on some food products, but tariffs are likely to be reinstated under other trade authorities.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” says Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.07 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in October, down 1.8% from September and down 7.9% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for November, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.6% year over year. December is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 12.7%. Based on these forecasts, November and December would be the slowest months of the year, following July’s peak of 2.39 million TEU. December would be the slowest month since 1.83 million TEU in June 2023.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.2 million TEU, down 1.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024. Cargo is expected to increase in January, its first month-over-month increase in six months but down 10.3% year over year. February is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 8.5% year over year; March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.8%, and April at 1.97, down 10.9%.
