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Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to see a month-over-month gain in January, the first gain in six months. The ports are still expected to remain down year over year, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Global Port Tracker.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
U.S. ports handled 2.02 million TEU in November, down 2.3% from October and down 6.5% year over year. Ports have not reported numbers for December, but Global Port Tracker projects the month at 1.99 TEU, down 6.6% year over year.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
With volume forecast at 2.11 million TEU, January is expected to see the first month-over-month increase since last July as retailers bring in merchandise prior to February’s Lunar New Year holiday in Asia but would still be down 5.3% year over year. February is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6% year over year; March at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4%, and April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%. May is forecast at 2.07 million TEU, up 6.2% for the first year-over-year gain since last August.
