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Import cargo at major U.S. container ports is expected to see a surge throughout the summer as retailers take advantage of a 90-day reduction in tariffs that were recently imposed on China, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker.
“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end. We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.”
Many retailers suspended or canceled orders after the Trump administration announced a 145% tariff on China in April. However, following the reduction of tariffs and the announcement of a 90-day pause, many have resumed imports.
“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” says Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates founder. “However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
In April, U.S. ports handled 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), up 2.9% from March and up 9.6% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for May, but projections predict 1.91 million in May, down 13.4% from April and down 8.1% year over year.
Imports are expected to increase in June with some tariffs on pause, but numbers are projected to remain lower than last year at 2.01 million TEU, down 6.2% year over year. July is projected at 2.13 million TEU and August at 1.98 million TEU.
The current forecast brings the first half of 2025 up 3.7% year over year to 12.54 million TEU, better than the 12.13 million TEU forecast in May before the tariff pause was announced but below the forecast before the April tariffs announcement.
