Hardware Retailing The Industry's Source for Insights and Information
Results from questions included in the recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reveal that home builders expect a mix of demographic, economic and technological forces to significantly influence the long-term health of the home building industry and housing demand over the next decade.
Builders were asked to evaluate the long-term impact of 14 major trends. Among the factors expected to have a strong negative impact on housing demand and industry conditions over the next 10 years, the top forces were:
- Government debt levels: 82%
- Declining fertility rate: 78%
- Long-term inflation outlook: 70%
- Declining marriage rate: 67%
- Energy costs: 61%
Builders also identified various factors they expect to have a positive impact on the industry and housing demand, including:
- Aging housing stock: 73%
- Work-from-home trends: 65%
- Artificial intelligence: 52%
- Modular and panelized construction: 45%
- Aging population: 39%
“Builders are clearly thinking beyond the short-term outlook and are focusing on the forces that will shape housing demand for years to come,” says NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “While long-term demographic trends and fiscal pressures are viewed as headwinds, builders also see meaningful opportunities tied to an aging housing stock, evolving work patterns and emerging technologies that can offer growth opportunities and improve productivity and affordability.”
