Import Cargo Slowdown Forecasted for Year-End

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see a typical end-of-year slowdown in November and December, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” says  Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”

A 20% “fentanyl” tariff on China was reduced to 10% on Nov. 10 and an existing 10% reciprocal tariff on China imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place amid the U.S. Supreme Court hearing arguments on the legality of tariffs under this act.

“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” says Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates founder. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”

U.S. ports handled 2.1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in September, down 9.3% from August and down 7.4% year over year. Ports have not been reported for October, but numbers are projected at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.5% year over year. November is forecasted at 1.85 million TEU, down 14.4%, and December is forecasted at 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9%, both forecasted as the slowest months of the year.

Forecasts for 2026 include 1.98 million TEU for January, down 11.1% year over year, February at 1.85 million TEU, down 9%, and March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7%.